Friday, 17 April 2015
- The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee forecasts shorn wool production for 2014/15 at 341 mkg, the same as the 2013/14 level. This reflects a small drop in shorn sheep numbers offset by higher average fleece weights.
- The Committee’s first projection for 2015/16 has been set at 332 mkg, down by 2.7% from 2014/15, a result of lower sheep numbers arising from the high sheep and lamb turn-off rates this season.
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) has set its forecast production for the 2014/15 season at 341 million kilograms greasy for the 2014/15 season, the same as the estimate for the 2013/14 season.
Committee Chairman, Russell Pattinson commented that “while there is expected to be a reduction in the number of sheep shorn this season, this decline will be offset by an increase in average fleece weights across Australia due to good production conditions in several regions, including southern New South Wales, northern South Australia and regions in Victoria.”
The AWPFC has also made its initial projection for the 2015/16 season, with a forecast 2.7% decline in shorn wool production to 332 mkg. This decrease is due to an expected reduction in opening sheep numbers as a result of the continued high sheep and lamb turn-off rates in the current season.
The Committee noted that the AWTA wool test data for 2014/15 shows a reduction in volumes of wool 17.5 microns and finer, and an increase in 18-19 micron, 22-23 micron and broad wool (27 microns and broader), in the first nine months of the season. This has resulted in a 0.2 micron increase in the mean fibre diameter for Australia so far this season.
Tableau 1 : Résumé des estimations et prévisions de production lainière pour l'Australie
|
Paramètre |
2013/14 |
2014/15 |
Changement |
2015/16 |
Changement |
|
Ouverture des nombres de moutons (million de têtes) |
75.5 |
71.6 |
-5.2% |
69.1 |
-3.5% |
|
Nombre de moutons tondus (million de têtes) |
78.0 |
75.8 |
-2.8% |
73.7 |
-2.9% |
|
Coupe moyenne par tête (kg/tête) |
4.37 |
4.49 |
+2.9% |
4.50 |
+0.2% |
|
production de laine tondue |
341 |
341 |
0.0% |
332 |
-2.7% |
Remarque : Les totaux peuvent ne pas correspondre en raison de l'arrondi.
Table 2: Total greasy wool production by state – 2012/13 and 2013/14 forecasts
|
QLD |
Nouvelle-Galles du Sud |
VIC |
TAS |
SA |
Washington |
NATIONAL |
|
|
Estimation finale 2013/14 (mkg) |
10.8 |
125.3 |
70.5 |
10.2 |
52.0 |
71.8 |
341 |
|
2014/15 April Forecast (mkg) |
8.1 |
128.1 |
71.9 |
10.2 |
56.1 |
66.4 |
341 |
|
Changez votre % |
-24.8% |
+2.2% |
-1.9% |
0.0% |
+7.9% |
-7.4% |
0.0% |
Remarque : Les totaux peuvent ne pas correspondre en raison de l'arrondi.
Le Comité national s'est appuyé sur les conseils des six comités d'État, chacun comprenant des producteurs, des courtiers, des négociants de gré à gré, des représentants des ministères d'État de l'Agriculture et l'Autorité australienne de contrôle de la laine.
Des données et des contributions ont également été recueillies auprès d'AWEX, d'exportateurs de laine, du Bureau australien des statistiques, d'ABARES, d'AWTA et de Meat and Livestock Australia.
Le rapport de prévisions complet sera disponible sur le site web d'AWI à l'adresse suivante : www.wool.com/prévisions by 22nd April 2015.