2015 年 4 月 17 日，星期五
- The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee forecasts shorn wool production for 2014/15 at 341 mkg, the same as the 2013/14 level. This reflects a small drop in shorn sheep numbers offset by higher average fleece weights.
- The Committee’s first projection for 2015/16 has been set at 332 mkg, down by 2.7% from 2014/15, a result of lower sheep numbers arising from the high sheep and lamb turn-off rates this season.
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) has set its forecast production for the 2014/15 season at 341 million kilograms greasy for the 2014/15 season, the same as the estimate for the 2013/14 season.
Committee Chairman, Russell Pattinson commented that “while there is expected to be a reduction in the number of sheep shorn this season, this decline will be offset by an increase in average fleece weights across Australia due to good production conditions in several regions, including southern New South Wales, northern South Australia and regions in Victoria.”
The AWPFC has also made its initial projection for the 2015/16 season, with a forecast 2.7% decline in shorn wool production to 332 mkg. This decrease is due to an expected reduction in opening sheep numbers as a result of the continued high sheep and lamb turn-off rates in the current season.
The Committee noted that the AWTA wool test data for 2014/15 shows a reduction in volumes of wool 17.5 microns and finer, and an increase in 18-19 micron, 22-23 micron and broad wool (27 microns and broader), in the first nine months of the season. This has resulted in a 0.2 micron increase in the mean fibre diameter for Australia so far this season.
表 1：澳洲羊毛產量估計與預測摘要
|
參數 |
2013/14 |
2014/15 |
變更 |
2015/16 |
變更 |
|
Opening sheep numbers (百萬頭) |
75.5 |
71.6 |
-5.2% |
69.1 |
-3.5% |
|
剪毛羊數量 (百萬頭) |
78.0 |
75.8 |
-2.8% |
73.7 |
-2.9% |
|
每頭平均切割量 (公斤/頭) |
4.37 |
4.49 |
+2.9% |
4.50 |
+0.2% |
|
剪羊毛生產 |
341 |
341 |
0.0% |
332 |
-2.7% |
註： 由於四捨五入的關係，合計數可能與實際數不符。.
Table 2: Total greasy wool production by state – 2012/13 and 2013/14 forecasts
|
QLD |
新南威爾士州 |
VIC |
TAS |
SA |
WA |
全國 |
|
|
2013/14 Final Estimate (公斤) |
10.8 |
125.3 |
70.5 |
10.2 |
52.0 |
71.8 |
341 |
|
2014/15 April Forecast (公斤) |
8.1 |
128.1 |
71.9 |
10.2 |
56.1 |
66.4 |
341 |
|
按年變動 % |
-24.8% |
+2.2% |
-1.9% |
0.0% |
+7.9% |
-7.4% |
0.0% |
註： 由於四捨五入的關係，合計數可能與實際數不符。.
The National Committee drew on advice from the six State Committees, each of which includes growers, brokers, private treaty merchants, representatives from State Departments of Agriculture, and the Australian Wool Testing Authority.
Data and input was also drawn from AWEX, wool exporters, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABARES, AWTA and Meat and Livestock Australia.
完整的預測報告可在 AWI 網站上取得，網址為 www.wool.com/forecasts by 22nd April 2015.