週五, 01 四月 2016
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) confirmed its forecast of shorn wool production for the 2015/16 season at 322 million kilograms greasy, a 7.0% decline on the 2014/15 season, as predicted at its meeting in December.
- The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee confirmed its December forecast of a 7% decline in shorn wool production in 2015/16 to 322 mkg. This reflects a combination of both fewer sheep shorn than in 2014/15 and a decline in average fleece weights due to seasonal conditions.
- The Committee’s first forecast for 2016/17 is for shorn wool production to be 320 mkg greasy.
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) confirmed its forecast of shorn wool production for the 2015/16 season at 322 million kilograms greasy, a 7.0% decline on the 2014/15 season, as predicted at its meeting in December.
Committee Chairman, Russell Pattinson said that “as the Committee expected in December, the dry seasonal conditions in Spring in many major sheep producing areas have resulted in lower average wool cuts per head this season. The hot, dry conditions over summer in a number of regions is likely to further exacerbate this during the autumn shearings and has also reportedly resulted in increased turn-off of sheep. This is particularly in evidence in Victoria, Tasmania, south-east South Australia and much of the main sheep producing regions in Queensland.
“Some regions, such as areas in Western Australia, have seen better rainfall mainly from intense summer storms which has relieved stock water shortages but pasture conditions remain a concern. In New South Wales, the largest producing state, conditions are mixed, with some regions seeing improvements but others reporting drier conditions and lower fleece weights than a year ago.”
The 7% decline compares with a 5.6% decline in the weight of wool tested by AWTA in the first eight months of 2015/16. The Committee expects that AWTA tests will fall away more rapidly in the last quarter of the season compared to the last quarter of 2014/15.
The AWPFC’s first forecast of shorn wool production for the coming 2016/17 season is for production to be 320 mkg greasy.
The Committee noted that for the 2015/16 season to February, AWTA test data showed a significant increase in the weight of wool between 16.5 micron and finer, only a small decline in the volumes of 17 micron wool but a significant decline in volumes of wool between 21.6 and 23.5 microns. Volumes of other micron categories mostly fell by around 6%-9%. The mean fibre diameter for Australia to February was 21.1 microns, the same as in 2014/15.
表 1：澳洲羊毛產量估計與預測摘要
|
參數 |
2014/15 |
2015/16 |
變更 |
2016/17 |
變更 |
|
剪毛羊數量 (百萬頭) |
72.6 |
72.8 |
-5.4% |
71.9 |
-1.1% |
|
每頭平均切割量 (公斤/頭) |
4.50 |
4.43 |
-1.6% |
4.45 |
+0.4% |
|
剪羊毛生產 |
346 |
322 |
-7.0% |
320 |
-0.7% |
註： 由於四捨五入的關係，合計數可能與實際數不符。.
Table 2: Total shorn wool production by state – 2014/15 and 2015/16
|
mkg 油脂 |
QLD |
新南威爾士州 |
VIC |
TAS |
SA |
WA |
全國 |
|
2014/15 Final Estimate (公斤) |
9.1 |
130.0 |
72.6 |
10.8 |
56.5 |
67.2 |
346 |
|
2015/16 Fourth Forecast (公斤) |
6.4 |
120.8 |
66.1 |
9.0 |
54.8 |
65.2 |
322 |
|
按年變動 % |
-30.2% |
-7.1% |
-9.0% |
-17.0% |
-3.1% |
-3.0% |
-7.0% |
註： 由於四捨五入的關係，合計數可能與實際數不符。.
全國委員會參考了六個州委員會的建議，每個州委員會的成員包括種植者、經紀商、私人協商商、州農業部代表以及澳洲羊毛檢驗局。此外，AWEX、羊毛出口商、澳大利亞統計局、ABARES、AWTA 和澳大利亞肉畜協會也提供了數據和建議。.
完整的預測報告可在 AWI 網站上取得，網址為 www.wool.com/forecasts from 15th April 2016.