Tuesday, 30 April 2019
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee forecasts that Australian shorn wool production for 2018/19 will be 298 mkg greasy. This is a 12.7% decline from the levels in 2017/18 and reflects the continuing drought conditions across large parts of Australia.
- The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee forecasts that Australian shorn wool production for 2018/19 will be 298 mkg greasy. This is a 12.7% decline from the levels in 2017/18 and reflects the continuing drought conditions across large parts of Australia.
- The Committee’s first forecast for 2019/20 is for shorn wool production to be 285 mkg greasy, a further fall of 4.5%, due to a reduction in the number of sheep expected to be shorn. This early forecast assumes normal seasonal conditions in 2019/20
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) has revised its forecast of shorn wool production for the 2018/19 season to 298 million kilograms (mkg) greasy, a 12.7% decline on the 2017/18 season and lower than its forecast of 305 mkg (-10.8%) at its November 2018 meeting.
Committee Chairman, Russell Pattinson said that “ongoing drought conditions across large parts of Australia have further decreased Australian wool production. Adult sheep numbers continued to decline during the 2018/19 season. To the end of January 2019, there has been a 25% increase in the adult sheep slaughter compared with the same period a year earlier.”
“Along with a reduction in greasy wool production there have also been significant changes in key test parameters, a further reflection of ongoing dry conditions. Average yield, which currently stands at 63.8% is at its lowest level in 8 seasons while the mean fibre diameter of the national clip is 0.5 microns finer than at the same time last season. There have also been considerable reductions in staple length, staple strength and vegetable matter. The Committee noted that the AWTA test data to March 2019 showed a significant increase in the weight of wool tested of 17.5 microns and finer, as well as a decline in the volume of 18.6 to 24.5 microns wool and 26.6 and broader.”
The Committee noted that welcome rain has fallen across several key wool producing areas around the country during the last week of March but recognised follow-up falls will be necessary. Wool producers recognise the value of their breeding ewes and are intending to hold them where possible.
The AWPFC’s first forecast of shorn wool production for the 2019/20 season is 285 mkg greasy, a 4.5% decline on the 2018/19 forecast. This forecast assumes a return of normal seasonal conditions. The Committee acknowledges that the impact of the drought will continue into the new season due, in part, to reported low scanning and lambing percentages in 2018/19.
表 1：澳洲羊毛產量估計與預測摘要
| 參數 | 2017/18 年度最終預算 | 2018/19 Fourth Forecast | 變更 y-o-y (%) |
2019/20 First Forecast | 變更 y-o-y (%) |
|
| Sheep numbers shorn (million head) | 76.8 | 71.2 | -7.3% | 67.9 | -4.5% | |
| Average cut per head (kg/head) | 4.4 | 4.2 | -4.5% | 4.2 | 0.0% | |
| Shorn wool production (mkg greasy) | 341 | 298 | -12.7% | 285 | -4.5% | |
註： 由於四捨五入的關係，合計數可能與實際數不符。.
Table 2: Total shorn wool production by state – 2016/17, 2017/18 and 2018/19
| mkg 油脂 | 新南威爾士州 | VIC | WA | SA | TAS | QLD | 全國 | |
| 2016/17 Final Estimate (mkg) | 126 | 67.4 | 71.1 | 57.9 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 340 | |
| 2017/18 Final Estimate (mkg) | 125.7 | 73.5 | 65.1 | 59.5 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 341 | |
| 按年變動 % | -0.2% | 9.1% | -8.4% | 2.8% | 1.1% | -2.4% | 0.3% | |
| 2018/19 Fourth Forecast (mkg) | 100 | 68.7 | 60.4 | 53 | 9 | 7.4 | 298 | |
| 按年變動 % | -20.4% | -6.5% | -7.2% | -10.9% | -3.2% | -10.8% | -12.7% | |
註： 由於四捨五入的關係，合計數可能與實際數不符。.
全國委員會參考了六個州委員會的建議，每個州委員會的成員包括種植者、經紀商、私人協商商、州農業部代表和澳洲羊毛檢驗局。此外，AWEX、羊毛出口商、澳大利亞統計局、ABARES 以及澳大利亞肉類和家畜協會也提供了數據和意見。.
The state and national Committees will next meet in mid-August 2019.
完整的預測報告可在 AWI 網站上取得，網址為 www.wool.com/forecasts from 12th April 2019